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Glioblastoma (GBM) is an aggressive primary brain cancer that currently has minimally effective treatments. Like other cancers, immunosuppression by the PD-L1-PD-1 immune checkpoint complex is a prominent axis by which glioma cells evade the immune system. Myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs), which are recruited to the glioma microenviroment, also contribute to the immunosuppressed GBM microenvironment by suppressing T cell functions. In this paper, we propose a GBM-specific tumor-immune ordinary differential equations model of glioma cells, T cells, and MDSCs to provide theoretical insights into the interactions between these cells. Equilibrium and stability analysis indicates that there are unique tumorous and tumor-free equilibria which are locally stable under certain conditions. Further, the tumor-free equilibrium is globally stable when T cell activation and the tumor kill rate by T cells overcome tumor growth, T cell inhibition by PD-L1-PD-1 and MDSCs, and the T cell death rate. Bifurcation analysis suggests that a treatment plan that includes surgical resection and therapeutics targeting immune suppression caused by the PD-L1-PD1 complex and MDSCs results in the system tending to the tumor-free equilibrium. Using a set of preclinical experimental data, we implement the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) rejection method to construct probability density distributions that estimate model parameters. These distributions inform an appropriate search curve for global sensitivity analysis using the extended fourier amplitude sensitivity test. Sensitivity results combined with the ABC method suggest that parameter interaction is occurring between the drivers of tumor burden, which are the tumor growth rate and carrying capacity as well as the tumor kill rate by T cells, and the two modeled forms of immunosuppression, PD-L1-PD-1 immune checkpoint and MDSC suppression of T cells. Thus, treatment with an immune checkpoint inhibitor in combination with a therapeutic targeting the inhibitory mechanisms of MDSCs should be explored.

 

Organism growth is often determined by multiple resources interdependently. However, growth models based on the Droop cell quota framework have historically been built using threshold formulations, which means they intrinsically involve single-resource limitations. In addition, it is a daunting task to study the global dynamics of these models mathematically, since they employ minimum functions that are non-smooth (not differentiable). To provide an approach to encompass interactions of multiple resources, we propose a multiple-resource limitation growth function based on the Droop cell quota concept and incorporate it into an existing producer–grazer model. The formulation of the producer’s growth rate is based on cell growth process time-tracking, while the grazer’s growth rate is constructed based on optimal limiting nutrient allocation in cell transcription and translation phases. We show that the proposed model captures a wide range of experimental observations, such as the paradox of enrichment, the paradox of energy enrichment, and the paradox of nutrient enrichment. Together, our proposed formulation and the existing threshold formulation provide bounds on the expected growth of an organism. Moreover, the proposed model is mathematically more tractable, since it does not use the minimum functions as in other stoichiometric models.

 

We consider the dynamics of a virus spreading through a population that produces a mutant strain with the ability to infect individuals that were infected with the established strain. Temporary cross-immunity is included using a time delay, but is found to be a harmless delay. We provide some sufficient conditions that guarantee local and global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the two boundary equilibria when the two strains outcompete one another. It is shown that, due to the immune evasion of the emerging strain, the reproduction number of the emerging strain must be significantly lower than that of the established strain for the local stability of the established-strain-only boundary equilibrium. To analyze the unique coexistence equilibrium we apply a quasi steady-state argument to reduce the full model to a two-dimensional one that exhibits a global asymptotically stable established-strain-only equilibrium or global asymptotically stable coexistence equilibrium. Our results indicate that the basic reproduction numbers of both strains govern the overall dynamics, but in nontrivial ways due to the inclusion of cross-immunity. The model is applied to study the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in the presence of the Alpha variant using wastewater surveillance data from the Deer Island Treatment Plant in Massachusetts, USA.

 

Prostate cancer is a serious public health concern in the United States. The primary obstacle to effective long-term management for prostate cancer patients is the eventual development of treatment resistance. Due to the uniquely chaotic nature of the neoplastic genome, it is difficult to determine the evolution of tumor composition over the course of treatment. Hence, a drug is often applied continuously past the point of effectiveness, thereby losing any potential treatment combination with that drug permanently to resistance. If a clinician is aware of the timing of resistance to a particular drug, then they may have a crucial opportunity to adjust the treatment to retain the drug’s usefulness in a potential treatment combination or strategy. In this study, we investigate new methods of predicting treatment failure due to treatment resistance using a novel mechanistic model built on an evolutionary interpretation of Droop cell quota theory. We analyze our proposed methods using patient PSA and androgen data from a clinical trial of intermittent treatment with androgen deprivation therapy. Our results produce two indicators of treatment failure. The first indicator, proposed from the evolutionary nature of the cancer population, is calculated using our mathematical model with a predictive accuracy of 87.3% (sensitivity: 96.1%, specificity: 65%). The second indicator, conjectured from the implication of the first indicator, is calculated directly from serum androgen and PSA data with a predictive accuracy of 88.7% (sensitivity: 90.2%, specificity: 85%). Our results demonstrate the potential and feasibility of using an evolutionary tumor dynamics model in combination with the appropriate data to aid in the adaptive management of prostate cancer. 

Chronic hepatitis B (HBV) infection is a major cause of human suffering, and a number of mathematical models have examined the within-host dynamics of the disease. Most previous models assumed that infected hepatocytes do not proliferate; however, the effect of HBV infection on hepatocyte proliferation is controversial, with conflicting data showing both induction and inhibition of proliferation. With a family of ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, we explored the dynamical impact of proliferation among HBV-infected hepatocytes. Here, we show that infected hepatocyte proliferation in this class of models generates a threshold that divides the dynamics into two categories. Sufficiently compromised proliferation in infected cells produces complex dynamics characterized by oscillating viral loads, whereas higher proliferation generates straightforward dynamics that always results in chronic infection, sometimes with liver failure. A global stability result of the liver failure state was included as it is unique to this class of models. Finally, the model analysis motivated a testable biological hypothesis: Healthy hepatocytes are present in chronic HBV infection if and only if the proliferation of infected hepatocytes is severely impaired.